Niño 3.4 ocean temperature vs normal
Hourly: robot sailboats in the El Niño zone
NOAA Saildrones cruising the central equatorial Pacific report every minute; shown here as hourly averages for the last 7 days.
Global impact map
Ocean temperature vs normal (daily satellite) with El Niño's classic drought and flood hotspots — each scored against the rain and heat actually observed over the last 90 days.
Where El Niño is hitting right now
Rainfall over the last 30 and 90 days compared with the same dates in 1991–2020. “Driest rank” is out of every year since 1992 (1 = driest).
Outlook: the coming months
What seven seasonal forecast models (ECMWF, NOAA, NASA, NCAR, Environment Canada) expect for rain and temperature, compared with 1991–2020 — with the odds, how much the models agree, and what actually happened in past strong El Niños.
City by city
Monthly outlook for each city, plus the next 16 days of day-by-day forecast. Tap a city for its daily rain and temperatures.
Rain outlook for every region
How to read confidence: each month's rain call is rated by two checks — how far the odds of above-average rain move from a normal year (51 ECMWF forecast runs), and how many of 7 forecast models from 5 centres (ECMWF, NOAA, NASA, NCAR, Environment Canada) lean the same way. Stronger colours in the tables mean higher confidence.
Seasonal forecasts shift the odds for a whole month; they cannot say which day a storm will hit. In dry places a single storm can double a month's rain. For warnings, follow your national weather service.
Daily: this event so far
Niño 3.4 temperature vs normal, every day this year (NOAA OISST satellite analysis).
Versus the biggest El Niños
Weekly Niño 3.4 from January of each event year through the following June.
Fuel below the surface
Upper-300 m ocean heat content vs normal, central–east equatorial Pacific (monthly). High values feed the event.
The atmosphere's response
Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti minus Darwin pressure, monthly). Strongly negative = atmosphere locked into El Niño.
75 years of El Niño and La Niña
Oceanic Niño Index (3-month average, NOAA's official record). Red bars ≥ +0.5 °C are El Niño; blue ≤ −0.5 °C are La Niña.